There is hardly a scientific method of setting Super Bowl odds but the men and women charged with this particular task seem to do a pretty good job. There are reams of stats that can be consulted, and past and present records, and recent head-to-head meetings that can be referenced, but there’s simply no way to account for the variable of playing on the grandest stage in all of sports and ultimately there is no formula.
This weekend, when the two weeks of super hype finally runs its course and the 6-time NFL champion Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) finally take the field in Arlington, TX opposite the 3-time NFL champion Green Bay Packers (13-6) it’s going to be nearly impossible to predict a winner.
And that will make the Super Bowl betting especially challenging.
Kickoff for this Sunday February 6th matchup is set for 6:30 Eastern Time and SBG Global sportsbook opened with the Packers as a 2-point favorite with an over/under total at 44.
With just a 2-point spread there’s really not a lot of room for bettors in picking the outright winner. If you’re putting your money on the Steelers it makes sense to go for the outright win but if you like Green bay your options are a bit limited.
However, one betting avenue that’s often overlooked but might just be the ticket for Super Bowl XVL is playing the over/under.
Sure, it’s not a sexy play, but it might be the smart one if you don’t have clear idea of which team you like to win the game.
This game’s over/under at 44 is a pretty target to bet against. A quick look through some of the stats, reveals that this number isn’t all that rooted in reality.
The Packers averaged 24.3 ppg in the regular season and the Steelers averaged slightly less at 23.4 ppg.
But in the postseason the Pack is averaging a whopping 30.0 ppg while the Steelers are averaging a respectable 27.5 ppg in the playoffs.
So why is the over/under at 44?
These defenses are stingy, that’s why. During the regular season neither team gave up more than 15.0 ppg but in the playoffs they’re allowing 17.0 ppg and 21.5 ppg, respectively.
It’s difficult to reconcile exactly what these numbers mean in terms of a final score but if you’re thinking of betting on the Super Bowl a total of more than 44 points seems likely.